Log in / My SOA

Population to Insured Mortality Translation Request for Proposals

Background and Purpose

Actuaries routinely rely on population mortality data to inform insured mortality assumptions, yet clear, practical guidance for translating between these populations remains limited. Mortality improvement (MI) assumptions are a critical component of actuarial analysis for life insurers. In practice, these assumptions are often informed by general population mortality data, which is more comprehensive, timely, and granular than insured experience data. However, the direct application of population mortality trends to insured populations is not straightforward due to differences in underwriting, socioeconomic characteristics, and selection effects.

Significant and persistent differences exist between population and insured mortality levels and trends, particularly at younger and middle ages where underwriting and selection effects are most pronounced. At older ages, these differences may diminish, and insured mortality is often assumed to converge, or “grade,” toward population mortality. However, the extent, timing, and appropriate methodology for such convergence remain areas of uncertainty and professional judgment. Divergent views on mortality improvement at older ages further complicate this issue and can materially impact long-term mortality projections.

The actuarial profession has made significant progress in developing structured approaches to understanding population mortality and mortality improvement, including the Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Mortality Improvement Model (MIM) (NOTE: an update to the MIM is expected June 2026) and research on socioeconomic differentials in mortality. These efforts provide valuable insight into population mortality trends and underlying drivers. However, the application of these population-based insights and frameworks to insured populations remains less well-defined, requiring significant professional judgment and resulting in variability in practice.

A range of data sources is available to support analysis of population and insured mortality, including publicly available datasets, industry studies (e.g., SOA experience studies), and structured mortality datasets such as ILEC. These sources vary in granularity, credibility, and applicability. At the same time, advances in population data sources have increased the availability of detailed mortality information by cause of death, geography, socioeconomic status, and other dimensions, offering potential insights into emerging mortality trends and drivers. However, there is limited guidance on how to translate these insights into assumptions for insured populations, where data may be more limited or less current.

Given these challenges, there is a need for research that helps actuaries bridge the gap between population and insured mortality. In particular, improved frameworks, methodologies, or tools are needed to support the translation of population mortality levels and trends—including mortality improvement—into insured mortality assumptions, and to provide practical guidance on when population-based insights can be applied directly, adjusted, or supplemented with insured experience. 

This research is expected to focus primarily on U.S. mortality experience and data sources, reflecting the needs of U.S.-based actuarial practice. Proposals may incorporate international comparisons where relevant to inform methodology or provide additional context.

Research Objective

This research seeks to develop insights, frameworks, or methodologies to support the translation of population mortality experience into insured mortality assumptions, with a focus on practical application in actuarial modeling and assumption setting, including the development of approaches that can be directly applied or adapted in practice. Researchers are encouraged to consider the strengths, limitations, and appropriate use of available population and insured mortality data sources when developing their approaches.

This research is intended to focus on life insurance applications. While insights may be broadly informative, proposals are not expected to address annuity or pension-specific mortality considerations unless included as a secondary or comparative element.

Proposals should address the following components:

  • Translation Frameworks and Methodologies
    Develop approaches for translating population mortality data into insured mortality assumptions. This may include the development of adjustment factors, modeling frameworks, or decision-support tools that help actuaries apply population-based insights to insured populations.

Researchers are encouraged to identify and explain the key drivers underlying differences between population and insured mortality, where such drivers can be reasonably supported by the analysis.

  • Application to Mortality Improvement (MI)
    Where applicable, evaluate how population mortality improvement trends can inform insured mortality improvement assumptions, including the extent to which population trends can serve as leading indicators, benchmarks, or anchors for insured experience. Proposals may also consider how outputs from population-based mortality improvement models or frameworks can be adapted, adjusted, or supplemented for use in insured mortality assumptions.

The analysis and modeling should consider variation by gender and age group, impact of underwriting and selection more generally, and older age convergence (or not) between insured and population mortality

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee encourages proposals that take a focused, well-defined approach aligned with the researcher’s expertise and available data. Preference will be given to studies that balance methodological rigor with interpretability and practical applicability.

Proposal Requirements

Proposals should consider the usability of outputs across a range of organizations, including those with more limited data, modeling resources, or technical infrastructure.

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

  1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
  2. An outline of the approach to be used, emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Proposals should clearly articulate the approach to translating population mortality data to insured mortality assumptions, including any modeling frameworks, adjustment methodologies, or analytical techniques to be used. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis. The approach should specify expected data sources, whether the researcher currently has access to these sources, and whether the researcher has prior experience with the data sources to be used.
    Proposals should demonstrate awareness of relevant existing research and tools, including prior work sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (such as socioeconomic mortality studies and the Mortality Improvement Model), and clearly articulate how the proposed research builds upon, complements, or differs from these efforts.
    Proposals should also include a description of how the proposed research will produce outputs that are practical and usable by actuaries, including examples of how the results could be applied in real-world assumption setting or modeling contexts.
  3. A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources. The deliverable should include a targeted literature review summarizing existing evidence and identifying gaps this research will address. Generally, a written report is expected, although not necessarily required. Deliverables are encouraged to include practical outputs such as frameworks, tools, or methodologies that support actuarial application (e.g., translation approaches, model structures, or decision-support tools). Visualization tools, presentations, or other formats may also be proposed and will be considered. The deliverables must include a one-page executive summary that can serve as a standalone communication piece. Deliverables must clearly document methodology, assumptions, limitations, and appropriate use cases, including sufficient explanation to support proper interpretation and reduce the risk of misuse. Where applicable, proposals should indicate whether supporting tools or model code will be made available and describe the form of accompanying documentation.
  4. Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
    Please note that as a policy, the SOA Research Institute generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.
    As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix)
  5. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
  6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
  7. Proposals must be no more than five pages in length exclusive of references and researcher bios.

Selection Process

The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project.  The POG is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to research-ML@soa.org.

Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by July 25, 2026 to research-ML@soa.org.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to research-ML@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than August 3, 2026. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of September 2026.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review. 

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component. 

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.