Macroeconomic Indicators for Mortality Forecasting
Background and Purpose
The relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality has been widely studied, yet findings are often mixed and not consistently translated into actuarial forecasting applications. Economic indicators such as unemployment, GDP growth, inflation, and demographic dependency ratios may influence mortality through pathways including income stability, healthcare access, and behavioral or stress-related factors. These relationships may be particularly relevant during periods of economic stress or sustained downturns, when mortality trends can diverge from long-term expectations. However, the extent to which these variables provide reliable, forward-looking signals of mortality trends—particularly for insured populations—remains unclear. For insurers and pension systems, improving the ability to anticipate mortality improvement under varying economic conditions, including potential turning points, is a key area of interest
Research Objective
This research seeks to evaluate the extent to which selected macroeconomic indicators are associated with, and potentially predictive of, mortality trends. Proposals should focus on a limited set of indicators and clearly define the hypothesized relationship to mortality, including the direction, timing, and potential lag structure of effects. Relevant indicators may include, but are not limited to, GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and measures of disposable income; researchers may propose alternative or additional indicators with justification. Researchers are encouraged to examine whether incorporating macroeconomic variables can enhance mortality forecasting models, either through improved short-term projections, identification of turning points, or better explanation of deviations from expected trends. Analyses may focus on general population data, insured lives, or comparative segments, including variation by age, socioeconomic status, geography, or cause of death, particularly in response to economic shocks. . Comparative or international analyses are encouraged where data permits.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee encourages proposals that take a focused, hypothesis-driven approach aligned with the researcher’s expertise and available data. Preference will be given to studies that balance methodological rigor with interpretability and practical application, particularly those that clarify when and how macroeconomic indicators provide actionable insight for mortality forecasting. Outputs that support actuarial assumption setting, scenario analysis, or risk management—while clearly acknowledging limitations and uncertainty—will be of greatest value.
Proposal Requirements
To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:
- Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
- An outline of the approach to be used , emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Proposals should clearly articulate how selected indicators will be tested for predictive value, including model structure, lag assumptions, and validation approach. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis. The approach should specify expected data sources, whether or not the researcher currently has access to these sources, and whether the researcher has prior experience with the data sources to be used.
- A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources. The deliverable should include a targeted literature review summarizing existing evidence on macroeconomic drivers of mortality and identifying gaps this research will address. Generally a written report is expected, although not necessarily required. Deliverables are encouraged to include practical outputs such as visualization tools, model frameworks, or scenario analysis tools that support actuarial application. Other deliverable formats, in all forms of media, may be proposed and will be considered. The deliverables must include a one-page executive summary that can serve as a stand alone communication piece.
- Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
Please note that as a policy, the SOA Research Institute generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.
As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix) - A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
- Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
- Proposals must be no more than five pages in length exclusive of references and researcher bios.
Selection Process
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The POG is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.
Questions
Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to research-ML@soa.org.
Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal
If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by June 15, 2026 to research-ML@soa.org..
Submission of Proposal
Please email your proposal to research-ML@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than July 13, 2026.
Conditions
The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.
The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.
Conflict of Interest
You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.
Appendix
The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.
All Contracted Projects
This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.
Literature Reviews
This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.
Surveys
This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.