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Call for Analysis: U.S. County-Level Mortality and Socioeconomic-Demographic Characteristics

Background and Purpose

Understanding mortality heterogeneity is important for actuarial applications, so that actuaries can understand how differences in population mortality may inform pricing, reserving, and risk management decisions. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) is interested in examining mortality variations across U.S. counties in relation to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The SOA recently published a curated dataset of county-level variables derived from ACS and Census sources, designed specifically to support mortality research, and a mortality dataset by U.S. county is publicly available.

This call seeks analyses of county-level mortality variations by socioeconomic and demographic characteristics that are both methodologically rigorous and practically informative, with particular emphasis on transparency and replicability of analytical approaches. This initiative aims to foster practical, data-driven insights while building a foundation for future research in mortality modeling by not only producing meaningful findings but also advancing the toolkit available to actuaries and researchers working with complex population data.

Objectives

The primary objectives of this call are to use, at a minimum, the two data sets specifically identified under “Data Sources” below to:

  • Quantify variations in mortality across U.S. counties
    Identify and describe patterns in mortality rates across geography, age, sex, and time.
  • Assess relationships between mortality and socioeconomic/demographic factors
    Evaluate how variables such as income, education, employment, housing, and demographic composition relate to mortality outcomes.

Analyses are expected to be significantly different from the analyses of mortality by county-level socioeconomic deciles that the SOA Research Institute has published https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2025/mortality-socioeconomic-united-states/.

Potential Research Themes

While not exhaustive, areas of interest include:

  • Mortality disparities by income, education, or employment
  • Rural vs. urban mortality differences
  • Regional clustering and spatial dependence
  • Interaction effects between demographic and socioeconomic variables
  • Changes in mortality gradients over time
  • Identification of high-risk county profiles
  • Comparative analysis with prior socioeconomic mortality indices

Data Sources

Researchers are expected to utilize, at a minimum, the SOA’s dataset of socioeconomic and demographic variables by U.S. county and a mortality dataset by U.S. county:

Researchers may supplement with additional datasets, where appropriate (e.g., CDC, BRFSS, CMS, or environmental data), provided sources are clearly documented.

Note that for this call for analysis, the term “county” is used loosely and includes similar geographic regions, such as parishes in Louisiana and boroughs in Alaska.

Suggested Analytical Approaches

The SOA encourages a wide range of methodologies. Submissions may include, but are not limited to:

1. Descriptive Analysis

  • Geographic mapping of mortality rates
  • Distributional analysis across counties
  • Temporal trend analysis
  • Identification of outliers or clusters

2. Socioeconomic Stratification

  • Construction of composite indices (e.g., socioeconomic index scores)
  • Grouping counties into quintiles or deciles
  • Comparison of mortality across strata

3. Statistical Modeling

  • Regression-based approaches (linear, Poisson, Cox, etc.)
  • Multilevel (hierarchical) models
  • Spatial models (e.g., spatial autocorrelation, geographically weighted regression)
  • Machine learning techniques

5. Causal or Quasi-Experimental Methods

  • Difference-in-differences
  • Instrumental variables
  • Matching techniques

6. Life Table or Survival Analysis

  • Construction of life tables by subgroup
  • Decomposition of mortality differences

Expected Deliverables

Each submission should include a narrative report of no longer than 10,000 words, excluding references. Supporting visualizations are encouraged and don’t count toward the word limit. Similarly, code, formulas, or other details provided in an appendix do not count toward the word limit.

Narrative reports are expected to:

  • Develop and demonstrate analytical frameworks
    Showcase methods that can be reused or extended in actuarial and public health applications.
  • Provide actionable insights for actuarial practice
    Highlight implications for underwriting, assumption-setting, product design, and population risk segmentation, subject to the Guidance for Researchers below.
  • Promote reproducibility and transparency
    Clearly document data preparation, modeling choices, and limitations.
  • Comment on relevant SOA mortality research
    Compare, contrast, and/or expand upon findings identified in other SOA mortality research and the resulting implications.

Each of the following numbered components are expected:

1. Executive Summary

  • Summarize key findings and implications for practicing actuaries in a page or, at most, two pages.
  • Please do not provide an abstract renamed as an executive summary.

2. Introduction

  • Research question(s)
  • Motivation and relevance to actuarial practice

3. Data Description

  • Data sources and linkage approach
  • Key variables used
  • Data limitations (e.g., sampling error, missingness, geographic inconsistencies)

Note: Survey-based datasets such as ACS may include sampling variability and nonresponse bias, which should be explicitly addressed.

4. Methodology

  • Detailed description of analytical approach
  • Rationale for chosen techniques
  • Any data transformations or feature engineering
  • Model validation or robustness checks

5. Results

  • Key findings, clearly explained
  • Interpretation of relationships between mortality and covariates
  • Identification of significant drivers or patterns

6. Discussion

  • Implications for actuarial modeling and practice
  • Comparison with existing literature or prior SOA studies
  • Limitations and areas for further research

7. Reproducibility

  • Clear documentation of methods
  • Code or other model in appendix, doesn’t count as words
  • Input parameters used to run third-party vendor models, if applicable

Visualizations

Visualizations are strongly encouraged and should enhance interpretability rather than serve as decoration.

Guidance for Researchers

Researchers under this call examine relationships that are statistically informative but potentially delicate in interpretation. Socioeconomic and demographic variables at the county level are often closely intertwined and may capture broader structural conditions rather than isolated effects. Researchers are expected to exercise professional judgment in distinguishing empirical associations from normative or prescriptive conclusions, and to clearly articulate appropriate boundaries on interpretation and use of results.

Rules for Submission

  • Deadline: July 31, 2026. Submissions that are selected for publication will be published as soon as possible, likely in autumn 2026.
  • Length: no longer than 10,000 words, excluding visualizations and references
  • Format: Narrative in English in Word or PDF format (Word format preferred)
  • Visuals: Embedded or appended
  • Reproducibility material: Code or other reproducibility materials, preferably in an appendix
  • Author information: At the beginning of the narrative report, please provide the following information about the author: name, credentials or designations (if appropriate), email address, phone number, and either personal street address or title, company/organization name, and company/organization address. Submissions accepted for publication will show the author’s name but no further contact information.
  • Originality: Analyses and narratives must be the original work of the author or authors; must not materially rely on content generated by artificial intelligence or similar automated tools, except as disclosed or for performing non-substantive, mechanical, or editorial functions (such as spelling, grammar, or formatting corrections); must not have been previously published (except by the SOA); must not have been plagiarized; must not have been previously assigned, licensed, or encumbered; and must not infringe on any third-party intellectual property rights.
  • Citations: Except for citing data sources, quotations or controversial information, formal or extensive footnoting is not required.
  • Antitrust guidelines: Submissions must comply with the SOA’s antitrust guidelines https://www.soa.org/research/research-institute/antitrust-disclaimer/.
  • Content: Submissions that contain any overt or implied political statements, commercial content, inflammatory tone, or other inappropriate material will not be accepted for publication. Content should avoid drawing conclusions about the reasons for variations in mortality unless robust, relevant, contextual, supporting analysis is provided.
  • Where to submit: Email to Research-DEI@soa.org with the subject line “Socioeconomic-Demographic Mortality by County Call for Analysis.”

Evaluation Criteria and Awards

A review committee will evaluate submissions based on:

  • Insightfulness of findings
  • Relevance to actuarial applications
  • Clarity and rigor of methodology
  • Transparency and reproducibility
  • Effective use of visualizations

Importantly, the analytical process itself is considered nearly as valuable as the findings. Submissions that clearly articulate innovative or well-structured methodologies—even if results are exploratory—are strongly encouraged.

Up to 19,000 USD has been allocated to awards for this call for analysis. In addition to evaluating submissions for publication, the review committee will select the leading submissions and determine how to allocate the award money among them. Authors are ineligible for awards if an analysis is based on an SOA Research Institute-sponsored and funded research study conducted by the author.

Publication and Presentation

The SOA will publish and disseminate the submissions accepted for publication in an electronic format as soon as possible after selection. In exchange for publication, authors will be required to assign all copyrights in their analysis and narratives to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Submissions may also be presented at an SOA meeting, webcast, or other professional development event. In addition, other venues for publication or presentation of the ideas outside of the SOA may be considered.

Rights Granted

By submitting an analysis for consideration, the author(s) is (are) granting to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute an unlimited license to print or republish their submission with proper attribution given to the author(s).

Questions

Please direct any questions regarding this call for analysis via email to Research-DEI@soa.org with the subject line “Socioeconomic-Demographic Mortality by County Call for Analysis.”